I have been enjoying some Albertan hospitality, which also means it is the middle of July and I am only now posting my June results.
My own returns came from my correctly choosing the inverse Exchange Traded Fund for Natural Gas futures in the middle of June as the price of Natural Gas dropped a little over 12 percent.
The correction in longer term bonds at the end of the month provided a good entry point to what I believe should be a continuation of the summer rally.
In my May update I had mentioned that gold looked promising, but during the month of June it ended up being flat to down. I am watching for energy stocks to break out of their downwards trend as seasonality tends to favour them around this time.
XIU dropped below it's 200 day moving average at a price which I will call $19.00. This would trigger a sell in my Basic Timing Model. Since the 200 day moving average was rising, I would have purchased XIU again as close as I could to that same price after XIU bottomed and approached the moving average from below.
Six month return for TSX @ June 30, 2011 = -0.86 percent
Six month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -1.6 percent
Six month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -3.57 percent
Money for charity = $411.27