Portfolio Update



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As I mentioned in my July results, I bought the inverse S&P 500 ETF when the charts signalled the correction. I continued to hold it for the first couple of weeks in August  

I am still watching energy, gold, agriculture and natural gas, with natural gas just now starting to show signs of what might be a shorter-term reversal of the long slide lower.

The return I am showing for XIU (iShares TSX 60 ETF ) remains at the same level as July (when it crossed the 200-day moving average) since it continues to be at a price below its 200-day moving average. 

Eight month return for TSX @ August 31, 2011 = -4.83 percent

Eight month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -0.98 percent
Eight month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = 2.84 percent
Money for charity = $411.27

Does anyone think we have seen a bottom, yet?

June Portfolio Update

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I have been enjoying some Albertan hospitality, which also means it is the middle of July and I am only now posting my June results. 

My own returns came from my correctly choosing the inverse Exchange Traded Fund for Natural Gas futures in the middle of June as the price of Natural Gas dropped a little over 12 percent.

The correction in longer term bonds at the end of the month provided a good entry point to what I believe should be a continuation of the summer rally.

In my May update I had mentioned that gold looked promising, but during the month of June it ended up being flat to down.  I am watching for energy stocks to break out of their downwards trend as seasonality tends to favour them around this time.

XIU dropped below it's 200 day moving average at a price which I will call $19.00.  This would trigger a sell in my Basic Timing Model.  Since the 200 day moving average was rising, I would have purchased XIU again as close as I could to that same price after XIU bottomed and approached the moving average from below.

Six month return for TSX @ June 30, 2011 = -0.86 percent
Six month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -1.6 percent
Six month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -3.57 percent
Money for charity = $411.27