Friday, January 13, 2012

Harry Dent On 2012

Click Here To Play The Video
Harry Dent isn't just making this stuff up.  The big difference between what we have experienced over the past 50, or so, years, and what we are seeing now is largely explained by demographics.  I have to believe it would be very prudent to listen real carefully to what he has to say in this video.  Does that mean things can only get as bad as he claims?  No, but even if he is partially correct, then exercising caution could save us a whole lot of capital.  We could debate how bad it might get, totally ignore what he is saying, or keep our portfolios mostly out of harms way.

We can't go wrong avoiding storm clouds as they appear on the horizon.  Now is the time to remain vigilant, before the markets take any big hits.  If nothing else, now would be a good time to establish the maximum amount we are comfortable losing, and hold ourselves to it, should that time come.  If we do get another drop, and this time is anything like the previous ones, nobody is going to blow the whistle to clear the pool.  Only after the real damage is done will we hear, "If you are still in the market, then it is too late to sell now!"

I know a lot of people are inclined to just try to ride it out.  That is exactly what the people they are paying want them to do.  Surprised?  Do you remember the excuse from the last time?  "Oh, but nobody could have seen that was coming!"  As it turns out, there was a minority who did see it coming.  The problem was nobody (especially the media) would listen to them.  Myself, I would rather be sitting on a pile of cash after the worst is over than having to wait, hoping to eventually get back to even!

Do you think we are hearing Dent the researcher, or Dent the salesperson?


  1. Dent has predicted 10 of the last 2 market crashes. He's a joke

    1. @Anonymous
      Personally, I can't really speak to Dent's track record. What I find compelling is the demographics behind his prediction. Nobody (that I know) can predict the future, but the dominoes appear to be falling in (demographic) order, thus far - Japan, U.S. housing, Southern Europe... . Myself, I am taking a cautious approach going forward in order to avoid anything close to 2008. I wouldn't want the joke to be on me!

      Thanks for your input!


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