Thursday, November 10, 2011

Berman's (Recession) Call On BNN

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This video is a couple of weeks old, but the forecast is for 2012.  Based on the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index, we (the U.S., specifically) are tipping back into recession.  The indicator has never been this low without a recession following.  For more on the indicator, please refer to this post by Doug Short regarding the ECRI.  Larry also thinks what we are about to experience has much to do with current demographics, as do I.  Think deleveraging!  (Funny, but in looking at the spelling of that word I noticed it has the word aging in it - demographics, aging, ...?).

Myself, I believe the markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent, so I time my investments using charts to tell me what the market IS doing rather than what it is GOING to do.  Also, my horizon has decreased significantly over the past year, so I will not be investing in anything with the expectation of being in the market for more than weeks, rather than months.  

What would you say the odds are of us going back into a recession?

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