Limits To Commodity Growth?

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Michael Casey thinks the rebound in the U.S. dollar, and the declining equity and commodity markets are all related.  He refers to a "short squeeze" which is how I described it myself, last week.  As Qualitative Easing (QE2) comes to an end, I think people are anticipating a rise in interest rates.  Rising interest rates are bad for markets and good for the dollar.

Do you see the U.S. dollar continuing to go higher?  Do you think commodity markets have peaked? 

April Portfolio Update



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 We now know the market peaked early in April (if not March).  Seasonally, the peak normally occurs early in May.  The current correction should not be much of a surprise given the long run up since late last summer.  Thinking the correction was already underway, I ended up getting caught in the short squeeze just prior to Easter as we saw the market make one last gasp.  Now that a deleveraging process is taking over, stocks are getting sold to pay for losses in commodities.

As the market normally comes back to touch it's 200-day moving average at least once a year, I would not be surprised to see that happen before this is done. 

The good news for me is, since the end of April, I am making gains as the market is giving them up, which means my results are not nearly as bad as what they were at the end of the month.  I was early, caught by the fact the market didn't reverse until after the end of the month.

Four month return for TSX @ Apr. 29, 2011 = 3.94 percent
Four month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 3.14 percent
Four month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -5.78 percent
Money for charity = $411.27