Showing posts with label leverage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label leverage. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Buy Energy Companies?

Click Here To Play The Video


John Manley from Wells Fargo talks about his liking energy companies.  He says he doesn't believe oil prices will go as low as people are predicting.  He also thinks oil will stay more expensive longer than people think, and that natural gas will stay lower longer than people think.  He especially likes big dividend paying energy companies.


Myself, I would like to see a break in the longer term down trend in energy stocks before I would buy.  The way I personally would play it is with the Horizons leveraged energy Exchange Traded Fund - HEU on the TSX.  These leveraged ETF's are only for shorter term trades, so if I wanted to hold it for longer term durations I would likely use the iShares Energy ETF (XEG).


How is your energy level?


Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Margin

Click To Enlarge
I blogged earlier about the decrease in stock market volume since the market bottomed in 2009.  While I find the lack of market breadth a little disconcerting, it is by no means a signal the markets are about to crash.  When I found this chart regarding margin, all I could do is shake my head.  First, you and I are paying through the nose for fuel to get to work, and to get from point A to point B, in general.  We saw recently when they hiked the margin requirements for silver, that the price corrected substantially as managers had to raise cash to cover their debts.

How can the regulators not see the affect excess margin is having on the price of fuel?  Given the relatively large amount of margin, it is not difficult to imagine what it is doing to prices.  The chart comes from Doug Short's website http://www.dshort.com/, and is compiled from data that is readily available.

While I am troubled by the regulators refusal to do anything that might have a negative affect on the banks' ability to generate commissions from orders bulked up and on steroids from the application of margin, what concerns me even more is the fact we (fund managers, actually) are leveraging up to the degree that we have only seen twice before, and each time the unwinding of it crashed the markets.

If that wasn't enough, consider that all this leverage is in the hands of fewer and fewer players!  Yet another thing that doesn't feel right about this so-called recovery.  Why do I feel like I am experiencing deja vu all over again?  How about you?

Friday, March 11, 2011

Investing Seasonality

Nasdaq Composite
I am not one to make my investment decisions purely on the basis of seasonality.  I do watch for seasonal trends.  One of the best ways of monitoring what's in season, and what isn't is to check http://www.equityclock.com/.  From the main page click on the Seasonality tab at the top.
We can see from the list of Primary Sectors that the Information Technology sector is normally strong from October 9 to January 17.  If we look at the chart for the Nasdaq Composite we can see the momentum has carried right into the end of February.  Missed it, right?

No, since I believe the markets are due for a correction anyway, what better way to play the decline than to choose the sector which has just recently peaked?  More bang for the buck, so to speak.  The easiest way to do so is with the Horizons' Nasdaq 100 Bear ETF.  The ticker symbol on the TSX is HQD.  Although I like to use these ETF's, I have to warn others who might want to that they use leverage.  In this case, for every single percent the Nasdaq 100 falls, this particular ETF will gain around 2 percent.  I say around 2 percent, because this type of ETF does not always track the underlying index perfectly.

In a very exaggerated example, think what would happen if the market rose by 25 percent in one day.  This would mean the ETF should drop 50 percent (2 times).  The next day, if the market dropped by 25 percent, the market would be around 94 percent of where it started.  The ETF, on the other hand, would lose 50 percent, then gain 25 percent (50 percent of 50 percent) and only be at the 75 percent level of where it started.

This is one trade where timing is everything.  Success will depend entirely on getting in and getting out at the right time.  With the help of seasonality, and technical analysis, it can be a very lucrative trade.  Still, if it goes wrong, the key is to recognize that fact, and just unwind the trade.  Any time a trade is costing me capital, I have to be doing it wrong!

Paying attention to market seasonality is one way we can identify setups for profitable trades.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

What Are ETF's?

ETF stands for Exchange Traded Fund.  When I wrote about my basic market timing model, I mentioned the purchase of an ETF which tracked the total stock market rather than a mutual fund.  Before I talk about ETF's I would like to talk, first, about the problems I have with mutual funds.

Most mutual funds are actively managed, where a fund manager decides what to include in the fund according to the prospectus which defines the types of investments to be held.  There are equity mutual funds, fixed income mutual funds, and money market mutual funds.  Many have sales fees, either when I buy, or when I sell.  They charge a management fee, and deduct certain costs from the returns they generate.  Mutual funds pay a commission to the person who sold me the fund.  While there are a couple of good reasons to buy a mutual fund, generally, the cost of doing so is the reason I am not a fan.  Just to be clear, I am not a financial advisor, or anything of the sort, either.  In a case of I can buy better, but I can't pay more, most funds, because of the expenses involved tend to under perform the market.  One's that outperform rarely do so for long periods of time.  Guessing which mutual fund to own is a bit of a mug's game.

ETF's, on the other hand, tend to mirror a particular index, or commodity.  Since there is usually nobody picking what to include and what not to (that has already been determined by the index), the charges to me for fund management are less.  What that also means is when the index goes lower, so does the ETF, by an equal amount.  There is nobody trying to slow the decline.

They are called exchange traded funds because the shares trade on a stock exchange in the same fashion as other stock equities.  When I buy shares in the fund, I pay a commission fee, instead of a sales charge.  The management expenses are deducted prior to the share's value being determined.  If my shares go up ten cents each, then that means I made ten cents after the fund company has taken their portion.

There is a difference between regular shares and ETF shares.  With regular shares I purchase shares in one company at a time.  With ETF's I buy a basket of shares (of whatever makes up the underlying index), or contracts based on commodities.  A few ETF's allow me to buy the actual underlying commodity itself, with the fund manager having to store it for me.

Another difference is one of supply and demand.  A company offers a number of shares in the company to raise money.  ETF's are bought and sold from a float which is for most purposes, practically limitless.  I do not need to be overly concerned with supply and demand, as those constraints apply to the price of the underlying index, or commodity.

For people who have not heard about ETF's from a financial advisor, it is likely because advisors do not make any money when recommending the purchase of an ETF.  They do when selling mutual funds, but not for ETF's.  Since they trade like stocks, purchasing ETF's is seen to be more for the sophisticated investor, and less so for the beginner.  To avoid full service brokerage fees, I also need my own discount brokerage account online.

When starting out, I looked at purchasing widely based ETF's which performed as closely to the actual TSX as possible.  Sector, and specialty funds came later only after I gained more experience.  Claymore, Ishares, Horizons, as well as many of the Canadian banks have ETF's which are bench marked to the TSX.

Again, learning to manage my own funds took a little time and effort, so I started by "paper" trading without plunking down any actual money, and then started very, very small.  By small, I mean no leveraged ETF's - ETF's that return a multiple of the underlying index (i.e.: two times, or three times) until I gained some experience and understood what they were and how they worked.

I can make more by earning higher returns from my investments, or better still, by simply avoiding many expensive mutual funds.