Too Critical?
I know I sound critical of the financial services industry. I've worked in the industry, I've watched it for years. I've been there, done that, and got the T-shirt. It is my personal experiences with the financial services industry that prevents me from believing their propaganda and the many cheerleaders who endorse their message (and receive compensation for doing so). While critical of the financial services industry, I'm also very positive about our own ability, with the available technology today, to better the results of the average fund manager. Remember, very few of them beat the market averages over the long term.
Tactics
I know people have difficulty believing they deserve better. After all, the professionals are the best at doing what they do and I'm not disputing that. That means, either I can settle for the bread crumbs they throw my way, or I can look for something better. If we are trying for a different result, why would we try to mimic the professionals with their millions and billions of dollars for which they earn outlandish fees? You and I have so much less. I remain convinced that our primary advantage over the big professional fund managers is our ability to out-run them. That means being very tactical. The philosophy of fund managers has always been to buy and hold. I have said in this blog, and I've said for years, that buy-and-hold is a marketing strategy, not an investing strategy.
Trends
So, if we want to outperform buy-and-hold and run rings around these professional fund managers then how do we do it? Many would tell me they don't have all day, every day, to sit in front of their computer watching markets, and playing with the numbers while trying to do better, especially when they don't even believe that timing the market is possible. And that's fine. People who don't believe it is possible will never be able to make it happen, anyway. Faith is funny that way. To outperform the average fund manager, people don't have to write a blog, they don't have to surf the internet every day, they don't have to crunch the numbers all the time. We simply need to monitor trends; long or short, up or down. I get confused as to why that is so hard to understand. Just me? I don't know. Like I said, I don't understand why.
Profit
I'm not even saying we need to identify the very beginning of a trend. Once the market confirms there is, in fact, a trend, then we can take part, and get out again when either the trend seems to be faltering, or when our profits are sufficient that we should take our money off the table. Even if we get it right only fifty percent of the time, but cut our losses short, we still come out ahead. So what if we can't identify how long the trend will actually continue? I guarantee, another new one will shortly follow.
Charts
It doesn't take a huge amount of skill to read a chart. People do it all the time. We look at charts of the outdoor temperature, performance charts, health charts, progress charts, budgets, forecasts, to name a few. Yes, it takes a little practice, it takes knowing what to look for and what to watch out for. In the end, anybody can do it, anybody who wants to, and has a little desire to spend a bit of time monitoring their investments in return for a greater than average payoff. Again, I have to admit I don't know why more people don't take this approach. I do know it's partly because people think it's too hard, and that it is a waste of time, especially since we are always told by the professionals we couldn't do it even if we tried, anyway.
Full Time Returns; Part Time Effort
As for me, I'm not giving up. I will continue to blog. I will continue to talk about the methods in which people can take control of their own destiny through just a little bit of time and a little bit of effort in order to make more money working part-time than any other part-time job would ever pay them, and even more than some full-time jobs. It takes practice. I'll grant the critics that, but it's neither too difficult, nor too time-consuming - let alone impossible - that most people shouldn't, at least, try.
What is your single biggest reason for not trying? Care to share it?
Showing posts with label fund managers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fund managers. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Thursday, January 24, 2013
The World Is Not Flat
Jack Be Nimble
Below is an older video from Phil Town's blog http://philtown.typepad.com . The arrow on the chart beneath it shows us the point in time at which Phil was suggesting people should get out of the market. When we see the fund managers getting out, we can out-run them because it takes them weeks to adjust their holdings, and us, as little as a day.
"Going Down!"
Being "old school", Manny Schiffres doesn't know how to determine what a bottom looks like, so doesn't want to take the chance of getting back in at the wrong time. To Manny, quality is "king". The trouble is, and as the graph shows, everything goes lower in a time of crisis. Even Maria is convinced taking the long view is the correct approach. I doubt that today, even after what happened, she will have changed her mind. The same can be said of most of the people who lost everything in the tech wreck at the beginning of the 2000's.
Phil Town on CNBC's Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo from Phil Town on Vimeo.
Save Your Money
Yes, the market has come back, but just imagine if you knew how to time the market like Phil, and had practically all of your cash after the market stopped dropping! Think about how much money got left on the table by riding the market down and not getting out.
Investing and/or Marketing
The surge in world stock markets over the past couple of decades has been caused, primarily, by the spending of the Baby Boomers. To think that is going to be the case for the next couple of decades is to have your head in the sand. Demographics are showing us that the Baby Boomer spending peaked (perhaps, not coincidentally) in 2007. Buy and Hold is, and always has been, a marketing strategy, not an investing strategy. We need to understand the difference.
"You Trader, You!"
I love how Maria calls Phil a Trader (as opposed to an Investor), as if being a Trader was something bad! We need to educate people that being a good trader is smart, not bad. It took a while to get the academics of the day to believe the Earth is not, actually, flat. There are a few who still believe it, today. I can only hope it doesn't take so long to convince people to learn how to avoid market disasters like the last two we went through because the next one will come soon enough.
If people can learn to be good traders, does that mean they are merely lucky? How many people do you know who, despite working very hard, others would say they were very lucky in life? What do you think?
Below is an older video from Phil Town's blog http://philtown.typepad.com . The arrow on the chart beneath it shows us the point in time at which Phil was suggesting people should get out of the market. When we see the fund managers getting out, we can out-run them because it takes them weeks to adjust their holdings, and us, as little as a day.
"Going Down!"
Being "old school", Manny Schiffres doesn't know how to determine what a bottom looks like, so doesn't want to take the chance of getting back in at the wrong time. To Manny, quality is "king". The trouble is, and as the graph shows, everything goes lower in a time of crisis. Even Maria is convinced taking the long view is the correct approach. I doubt that today, even after what happened, she will have changed her mind. The same can be said of most of the people who lost everything in the tech wreck at the beginning of the 2000's.
Phil Town on CNBC's Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo from Phil Town on Vimeo.
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Click To Enlarge |
Yes, the market has come back, but just imagine if you knew how to time the market like Phil, and had practically all of your cash after the market stopped dropping! Think about how much money got left on the table by riding the market down and not getting out.
Investing and/or Marketing
The surge in world stock markets over the past couple of decades has been caused, primarily, by the spending of the Baby Boomers. To think that is going to be the case for the next couple of decades is to have your head in the sand. Demographics are showing us that the Baby Boomer spending peaked (perhaps, not coincidentally) in 2007. Buy and Hold is, and always has been, a marketing strategy, not an investing strategy. We need to understand the difference.
"You Trader, You!"
I love how Maria calls Phil a Trader (as opposed to an Investor), as if being a Trader was something bad! We need to educate people that being a good trader is smart, not bad. It took a while to get the academics of the day to believe the Earth is not, actually, flat. There are a few who still believe it, today. I can only hope it doesn't take so long to convince people to learn how to avoid market disasters like the last two we went through because the next one will come soon enough.
If people can learn to be good traders, does that mean they are merely lucky? How many people do you know who, despite working very hard, others would say they were very lucky in life? What do you think?
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