December 2011 Portfolio Update

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December began well for me as I successfully followed the TSX lower during the first half of the month, but gave back all I had made, and then some, when I had to stop out of the Materials ETF I was holding near the end of December.  Of course, I would have been fine, now, if I had just held on, but when a position unexpectedly goes against me, I have to sell in order to make sure a smaller loss doesn't turn into a larger one!


Materials and Financials are seasonally strong during January.  I want to get back into Materials as soon as the opportunity presents itself.      

The return I am showing for XIU (iShares TSX 60 ETF ) remains at the same level as July (when it crossed the 200-day moving average) since it continues to be at a price below its 200-day moving average. 

Twelve month return for TSX @ December 31, 2011 = -10.89 percent
Twelve month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -0.98 percent
Twelve month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -3.23 percent
Money for charity = $411.27


I would like to wish everyone a prosperous and Happy New Year!

Portfolio Update

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My July results find me caught back up to the market, or perhaps I should say the market caught up to me.  I enjoyed some success in the energy sector before the last week in July when everything reacted to the political games in the U.S..  As a result, the charts signalled at least a short term reversal, so I bought the inverse S&P 500 ETF.  The latter provided me with the largest amount of my profits. 

I have not given up on energy, as we have entered a seasonally strong period for it.  I am also watching gold, but hoping for a correction in order to find a good entry point.  Agriculture and natural gas are also beginning their strong seasonality. 

Apparently, we have had too much rain for natural gas to be of great interest, at least according to one analyst.  He suggested that natural gas is used to supplement electricity needs.  So, despite the heat waves we have seen over this summer, water reservoirs are filled sufficiently to provide enough hydro-electric power that we do not need large quantities of natural gas for power generation.  Huh, who knew!

If you are wondering about the reversal in XIU in my chart, it is because, as a market timing tool, we would not hold it below the 200 day moving average.  Since the 200 d. m.a. was still rising in July, selling XIU at it's latest cross downward through the 200 d. m. a. protected profits from earlier in the month.

Seven month return for TSX @ July 31, 2011 = -3.51 percent
Seven month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -0.98 percent
Seven month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -2.35 percent
Money for charity = $411.27

Anyone want to share their returns for the year?