Friday, December 7, 2012

November Returns

Click To Enlarge
"Stupid Is As Stupid Does"
Tired of hearing about the U.S. fiscal cliff, yet?  Never give a politician the spotlight.  They seem to think this is their 15 minutes of fame, and are going to use it for every last possible opportunity to make a point.  Because of that, I don't believe it is going to go away any time soon.  Dr. Phil would say the best indicator of future behaviour is recent past behaviour.  When it comes to dealing with this type of issue, they have shown in the past how much they will try to manipulate the situation in, what they think, is in their favour.

Scoring vs. Winning
Sometimes, when we get too close to what is happening in the market, we can get caught up in short term thinking.  When we lose track of the bigger picture, our vision becomes too narrow, and we can miss obvious signs that we are putting our money at risk.  The U.S. fiscal cliff, to me, is a case of trying to score political points while totally ignoring the consequences of doing so.  Have you ever continued an argument past the point where you realized you were no longer making any sense, but continued, anyway, in trying to make the point?

The Power of Example
I wouldn't take much issue were it not for the fact we are talking about the decision makers affecting the largest economy in the world!  It only highlights all of our lack of ability to work together for the common good.  When did it become all about ME, and MINE, and the hell with everyone else?!?  As far as I am concerned, I wouldn't vote for a single one of them.  When we stop trying to serve the interests of the greater good, we have taken a face plant into greed and nastiness and self.  Have you ever seen a time in history when such behaviour ended well?

Real Consequences
The argument seems to be the real consequences of failing to do the right thing now are months, or years into the future.  That belief fails to acknowledge the market is already basing today's decisions on what is expected to happen months downs the road, and that indecision and infighting is not creating an environment conducive to investment and growth.  The longer this continues, unresolved, the greater the chance we face not only a economic recession, but the possibility of a market crash, as well.

23 month return for TSX @ November 30, 2012 =     -8.51 percent
Return for Basic Timing Model Using XIU =             11.82  percent
Return for Advanced Timing Model =                      -4.36 percent
Money for charity =                                              $0.00


  1. Remember back when Reagan was president, he promised to lower taxes and reduce spending. Well he missed big time on both, in turn the national debt went from $997 billion to $2.85 trillion. Most people thought the world would end back then when it reached $1 trillion !!!

    The world did not end. The printing presses continued on.

    Except today they've been replaced by a couple of extra '0's on the Bernanke keyboard

    1. Anonymous, thanks for commenting. I do remember the Reagan days. For me, the big difference is today, the Baby Boomers are retiring and/or dropping out of the work force at a phenomenal rate. Then, they were just hitting their spending stride. I keep hearing how the markets are likely to go to all time highs next year, but nobody can explain where all that spending is going to come from. Central Banks can provide cheap capital, but they can't make people spend. My sense is that except for the one percent, they've already been there, done that.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.