October 2012 Returns

Click To Enlarge

Seasonally, November brings the beginning of the best six months for the TSX market.  The materials sector normally shows strength at the middle of the month with the technology sector continuing in strength.  Technology as measured by the iShares XIT Exchange Traded Fund is currently trending higher, but the materials sector - not so much, yet.  Overall, the TSX was relatively flat for the month of October, finishing slightly higher.

Mutual Fund redemptions have been growing, and I expect that trend is likely continuing, given investor uncertainty over the situation in Europe and the elections/fiscal cliff in the U.S. coupled with continuing high unemployment.  All in all, no news is still better than bad news, but not by much.  It is still impossible to tell, yet, whether, or not, we will get much of a rally going into the end of the year. 

22 month return for TSX @ October 31, 2012 =     -6.98 percent
Return for Basic Timing Model Using XIU =          13.5   percent
Return for Advanced Timing Model =                    -4.36 percent
Money for charity =                                            $0.00

Any predictions for the end of the year?