Tuesday, May 8, 2012

April 2012 Returns

Click On The Chart To Enlarge

We are pretty much past the favourable seasonality period for the markets until later, towards the end of the summer.  It seemed interesting to me, the number of talking heads in the media that were saying this year was no time to "sell in May, and go away".  Once again, this spring was going to be different.  It always gives me a pain in the butt when the very people who should represent our interests, put their own ahead of ours, instead.  The truth is, we shouldn't necessarily sell everything going into May, but taking some profits might be what a prudent person would do.

First, we generally had a good long run up in the markets since the beginning of the year.  Second, while people  felt protected by the Federal Reserve Bank's actions in the U.S., the latest effort to stimulate the markets is due to end.  Third, economic data has softened, including in China.  Fourth, Europe is, or soon will be, in a recession.  Still, the experts would have us believe that all is well, and the correction in the markets that normally begins this time of year won't likely happen.

If I sound bearish, it is because I am.  I said at the beginning of the year I would share my trades on this blog.  The reason I haven't done so is because I have hardly made any.  The markets went practically straight up at the beginning of the year, with little opportunity to get in during a pull-back, and the U.S. markets are just now beginning to look like they are breaking the uptrend, and could likely go lower for a while.  More on that during a couple of future blog posts.

16 month return for TSX @ April 30, 2012 = -8.07 percent
Return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 5.61 percent
Return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -4.36
Money for charity = $0.00

Have you taken any profits, going into the summer season?

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