Typically, seasonality favours the TSX during March. Not so this year. While the TSX was down each week in March, the major U.S. markets were up and down. Despite the long rally since the third quarter last year, I have been reluctant to chase it. My own Elliott Wave analysis would suggest a high of 1425. The S&P 500 Index hit 1419 during the last week of March.
The media talks about the U.S. markets decoupling from the rest of the world markets. I have my doubts, although the huge government stimulus is having an affect. Normally the markets should continue higher until the first week of May, but if 1419 is, in fact, the high, then I would not expect any major rally until the last quarter of the year. According to the Elliott Wave theory, we could see the lows of last fall, again.
My investing horizon remains very short.
15 month return for TSX @ March 30, 2012 = -7.23
Return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 5.84
Return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -4.36 percent
Money for charity = $0.00
What are your expectations between now and the end of the year?
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