Monday, October 3, 2011

Portfolio Update

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September lived up to it's reputation, again, this year as being the worst for returns.  I have seen a tiny increase in my portfolio, but am largely out of the market.  I am happily observing the machinations of the markets from the safety of sitting on cash.  None of the usual seasonality has kicked in, at this point, but I have little interest in taking much of a long position before Greece defaults.

The return I am showing for XIU (iShares TSX 60 ETF ) remains at the same level as July (when it crossed the 200-day moving average) since it continues to be at a price below its 200-day moving average.

Nine month return for TSX @ September 30, 2011 = -13.36 percent
Nine month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = -0.98 percent
Nine month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = 2.97 percent
Money for charity = $411.27

Does anyone think we are going much lower from here?  It's okay to say so, either way.  Like most of the expert advisors, nobody is going to hold you to it.

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