Friday, May 6, 2011

April Portfolio Update

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 We now know the market peaked early in April (if not March).  Seasonally, the peak normally occurs early in May.  The current correction should not be much of a surprise given the long run up since late last summer.  Thinking the correction was already underway, I ended up getting caught in the short squeeze just prior to Easter as we saw the market make one last gasp.  Now that a deleveraging process is taking over, stocks are getting sold to pay for losses in commodities.

As the market normally comes back to touch it's 200-day moving average at least once a year, I would not be surprised to see that happen before this is done. 

The good news for me is, since the end of April, I am making gains as the market is giving them up, which means my results are not nearly as bad as what they were at the end of the month.  I was early, caught by the fact the market didn't reverse until after the end of the month.

Four month return for TSX @ Apr. 29, 2011 = 3.94 percent
Four month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 3.14 percent
Four month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -5.78 percent
Money for charity = $411.27

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