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As the market normally comes back to touch it's 200-day moving average at least once a year, I would not be surprised to see that happen before this is done.
The good news for me is, since the end of April, I am making gains as the market is giving them up, which means my results are not nearly as bad as what they were at the end of the month. I was early, caught by the fact the market didn't reverse until after the end of the month.
Four month return for TSX @ Apr. 29, 2011 = 3.94 percent
Four month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 3.14 percent
Four month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -5.78 percent
Money for charity = $411.27