I wanted to publish this second part to what I started some time ago. Unfortunately a couple of deaths in the family, Christmas, and the holidays all conspired to take my focus away from completing this.
Originally, I wanted to get this done as a means of recommending people rebalance their portfolios in the fall/November time frame. As we can see, now, despite seasonality being in our favour, the markets are off the November highs. It should go to make the point that seasonality is the probability of an event, not the certainty of it occurring. Me, I will continue to play the probabilities, make corrections when proved wrong, and keep my losses to a minimum.
History says this year (2015) is normally the strongest in the four year U.S. election cycle. Whether we have already pulled those gains forward into the end of last year, or no, remains to be seen. That is, in fact, the reason we need to rebalance our investments by taking profits and readjusting our asset allocations back to "normal".
Wishing you all the best for 2015.
